This is the first big fight of the year and definitely a great match-up for us on Sky Sports.

Sometimes when fighters meet for a second time it rarely lives up to the first one, but with these two exciting guys, there is no doubt in my mind we are in for a real treat on Sunday morning.

The first fight was nothing short of sensational and one of THE bouts of 2005 that we were lucky enough to cover. It went to the judges after 12 spectacular rounds, but there was never any doubt for me that Morales was the winner.

I think I gave it to him by three rounds (all three judges scored it 115-113) and he always looked in control of things and was the better fighter. He just didn't allow Pacquiao to do what he is good at and although he kept coming, there was never a time when Morales looked in trouble.

And I am not sure what Pacquiao can do this time around to change things.

Morales's defeat by Zahir Raheem was a big shock and lessons can be learned from it, but I just wonder whether the Filipino is too set in his ways, too one-dimensional to capitalise on any weaknesses that were exposed.

Roach: Pacman's trainer

If you take his aggression away, he does not have too much about him. I know he is working with Freddie Roach now and he might not be so left-hand happy from the southpaw stance, but I am not convinced he will come in with anything dramatically different.

Having said that, Manny's brother Bobby has also switched to Roach and looked a different fighter against Carlos Alberto Hernandez on the Jose Luis Castillo-Diego Corrales III undercard in October.

Admittedly he was given an absolute shocker of a decision, but I have to say I was surprised and impressed by the range of skills shown by Pacquiao Jnr, who was little more than a slugger.

But I am not so sure big brother can do the same. We have seen Arturo Gatti change his style under Buddy McGirt and Marco Antonio Barrera has also adjusted in the last couple of years, but they were both boxers from the beginning. Gatti in particular was a fantastic boxer as an amateur.

The biggest imponderable going into this has to be Morales - and whether or not he is on the way down. When a fighter has been in so many wars as he has, the deterioration eventually comes and it happens quickly.

The trouble with someone like Morales is he prides himself on his Mexican machismo. He takes the old-fashioned view that says 'I'm here to fight, to please the fans' and I've got take this fight to the other guy. That takes its toll and there is no doubt that Pacquiao will be the fresher of the two on Saturday night.

Pacquiao: can he change?

The loss to Raheem, which no-one expected, might be down to the fact that Morales simply under-estimated his man, badly. It was also at lightweight and I am not sure he should be up at 135lbs. Another concern I have for him is that he takes off too much weight and puts it back on before the first bell sounds.

But, having said that, I have never seen him short on stamina or in bad shape. I just think the Raheem defeat was one of those nights where, as a fighter, you know you cannot win. It happens sometimes, you get a guy in front of you that you just can't fathom or find a way past and it does your brains in.

It's what happened in the 'No Mas' fight. Roberto Duran should not have quit, but he wanted to fight and ended up with Sugar Ray Leonard ballet dancing in front of him. When that happens you just want to get out of the ring as soon as possible and I have a feeling Morales was just going through the motions against Raheem.

Raheem is also the sort of guy no-one wants to fight. He should get a crack at the other lightweight champions, but probably won't because he is so awkward and he is not big box office.

But Morales has had bad performances before and come back from them. He wasn't the first or the last to find Injin Chi a nightmare in 2001 and was well below par against Guty Espadas the same year, but he managed to get through them both.

Morales: genuine superstar

After all this is a genuine superstar we are talking about here and one of the best fighters we have seen in the last 20 years.

When all's told the Raheem loss was a huge revelation, but I cannot see Morales making the same mistakes again.

Yes, he has beaten Pacquiao before and it is always harder to beat a guy a second time and yes, he has changed trainers, but I never really saw much wrong with him, even if we never really know what is going on behind the scenes.

Pacquiao has won the battle to wear the Reyes gloves, the puncher's gloves, as well, which suggests he is going to hope it is his power that carries him through this and he is not going to dance his way to a points decision!

The best thing you can do with a puncher though, is take a little bit of his confidence away early on and I wouldn't be surprised to see Morales standing there taking his shots and digging back a bit before backing off and showing his skills in the latter part of the fight.

Pacquiao maybe fresher and will come at him as he always does, but despite his poor finish to 2005 I have to lean towards El Terrible starting the new year with another big win.